Saturday, May 14, 2011

Sam Fuld Article

So here is the original article presented to ESPN before their edits.



Will ‘The Legend of Sam Fuld’ Live On?

Samuel Babson (Yes, Babson) Fuld has done an admirable job serving as the replacement for the departed Carl Crawford in left field for the Rays this year. A throw-in as part of the Matt Garza trade, Fuld has wowed fans and scouts alike with his spectacular diving plays and unrelenting hustle. The Legend of Sam Fuld has generated a rabid fan following, but can he hit enough to stay in the majors?

Can He Pick It? Yes He Can!

Sam Fuld has played very well defensively this year, small sample size notwithstanding. According to Baseball Info Solutions’ estimates, he has already saved nine runs with his defense in left, including one with his arm. To put that number in perspective, Fuld is first among left fielders and tied for first among all outfielders in Defensive Runs Saved.  The statistic evaluates eight components of defense, including range, outfield throwing arm, and home run robberies, to measure the impact of each player’s defensive performance.  In 348 career innings in left field (roughly a fourth of a full season), Fuld has 12 Runs Saved. 

By comparison, former Rays’ left fielder Carl Crawford, a three-time Fielding Bible Award winner, averaged 17 Runs Saved over his final three seasons in Tampa.  Fuld is on pace to surpass that mark and then some. 

Before Rays fans get too excited, remember it is still May, and defensive numbers can fluctuate as much as offensive numbers.  Fuld has had a great start in left field, but will he keep it up?

From a classic scouting perspective, Fuld has shown the ability to support his outstanding fielding production. Fuld covers a great deal of ground with top-tier speed that compensates for his short legs. He is listed at 5'10", but has excellent leaping ability and good body control while airborne.  While he comfortably tops the Web Gem scoreboard, Baseball Info Solutions data shows that Fuld also leads all outfielders with 17 Good Fielding Plays, Web-Gem level plays where he recorded an out or prevented a baserunner advancement.  The next-best outfielder has just 11 so far. 

Carl Crawford Lite? Not Quite

Sam Fuld’s bat does not pack a punch, but he plays a position which is traditionally associated with power hitters. Among left fielders, Fuld currently ranks 12th in slugging percentage (.374), right in the same vicinity of the career numbers of middle infielders such as Jack Wilson and Miguel Cario.

In order for Fuld to hold his left field job, he will need to at least match the offensive production of the worst offensive left fielders in baseball over the past few years, such as Juan Pierre, Randy Winn, and Scott Podsednik.  These players compensated for their low slugging percentage by stealing bases and posting passable on-base numbers. Fuld’s speed (11 stolen bases) and keen batting eye (17:12 K/BB) suggest that he has the tools to also meet these criteria.

Worst Offensive Left Fielder Each Season (2006-10)

Year
Player
AB
SB
OBP
SLG%
2010
Juan Pierre
651
68
0.341
0.316
2009
Randy Winn
538
16
0.318
0.353
2008
Delmon Young
575
14
0.336
0.405
2007
Shannon Stewart
576
11
0.345
0.394
2006
Scott Podsednik
524
40
0.330
0.353








Using the worst left fielder data, we see that their average batting line is similar to Fuld’s career major league performance.  Additionally, Fuld MLB performance is intuitively what you’d expect from his minor league track record.  

Player
AB
SB
OBP
SLG%
Avg. Worst SLG LF
573
30
.334
.364
Fuld (MLB career)
265
13
.341
.362
Fuld (minors)
2281
106
.372
.405

Considering Fuld’s defensive potential, his career batting line suggests he’s capable of holding down a left field job at the major league level.  Tampa Bay has shown patience and confidence in Fuld, keeping him at the leadoff spot and giving him consistent at-bats while he works through his hitting slump. However, stud prospect Desmond Jennings likely has more offensive potential than the 29-year-old Fuld and may force Tampa management to find a creative solution for the positional log jam. 

Mr. Samuel Babson Fuld has shown us that he has the ability to be a tremendous defensive player. His future in the league, however, is dependent on his ability to make adjustments to Major League pitching. We all know how the Legend of Sam Fuld began, but it is up to him to decide how the story ends.

Christian Karayannides covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He is currently a video scout at Baseball Info Solutions, after previously working at the MLB Commissioner’s Office.

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